***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 5.4 7.9 4.5 40.1 40.0 27.5 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 4.2 8.3 5.7 51.3 44.3 27.9 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.7 6.7 5.9 48.8 43.8 28.5 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.0 55.8 46.2 27.4 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.1 6.9 9.1 60.5 49.4 28.4 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.1 6.1 11.4 51.8 44.2 30.2 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.6 6.9 5.4 50.4 43.4 28.4 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 6.1 14.5 11.0 64.8 50.0 30.7 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.5 5.1 8.5 53.1 46.7 27.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 5.8 11.5 11.0 58.9 47.7 29.0 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.5 9.3 9.4 74.4 55.6 30.1 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 4.1 9.7 8.1 63.4 50.1 29.0 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.3 59.2 49.5 29.7 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.8 15.2 11.4 71.8 55.0 31.7 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.4 6.1 48.0 43.2 28.2 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 2.0 6.5 9.5 67.8 53.1 30.3 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 3.0 7.5 6.0 57.2 47.6 29.3 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 5.2 10.1 11.8 54.4 45.8 29.7 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 3.5 7.6 6.2 55.1 46.6 28.0 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 6.2 12.6 13.2 63.5 48.1 31.3 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.9 6.8 6.0 46.1 43.9 26.6 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.4 9.2 6.8 65.9 51.3 29.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 4.3 10.0 7.4 62.4 51.6 28.6 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.1 10.2 9.6 55.9 47.7 30.0 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.6 6.1 7.1 46.4 42.4 29.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.5 6.3 55.1 47.1 30.1 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 6.1 9.0 6.1 42.1 40.0 28.7 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.9 4.8 7.4 53.2 45.4 26.5 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 6.1 12.8 11.5 55.1 45.3 30.3 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 5.3 9.4 5.4 47.9 42.8 27.5 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------