***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 2.7 7.8 4.7 56.2 50.4 30.9 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.1 5.2 53.7 47.3 31.9 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 4.4 9.7 4.7 56.6 49.0 33.1 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.6 6.8 3.2 37.3 41.3 28.8 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.2 8.6 4.7 51.2 49.2 32.2 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.0 8.0 6.0 58.1 50.5 35.7 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.3 5.5 55.1 47.2 32.0 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.5 20.1 7.3 73.9 56.9 38.6 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 4.4 10.7 5.8 54.0 51.1 32.4 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 6.7 14.7 7.6 64.1 53.6 35.4 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.3 10.2 4.6 63.6 53.1 31.7 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.8 13.0 4.8 75.9 57.5 36.6 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.5 4.6 70.3 54.7 35.2 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 6.7 12.9 6.9 59.0 49.7 33.1 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.5 2.1 32.7 39.0 27.0 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 4.3 8.9 4.0 63.6 52.2 32.7 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.1 4.4 5.8 58.7 49.2 32.7 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.2 15.9 9.6 69.0 54.5 37.0 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.6 7.6 4.8 51.6 46.4 31.1 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.7 16.9 9.8 77.6 57.8 40.8 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.1 10.5 5.0 57.4 52.2 31.4 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.4 8.9 5.5 58.8 49.5 33.6 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.7 7.2 4.6 48.8 45.0 29.7 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.1 12.9 7.4 64.9 52.3 35.8 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.4 7.8 4.8 48.0 46.3 32.5 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.6 3.8 85.2 57.9 36.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.3 9.0 5.4 54.1 49.2 33.1 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.8 2.6 36.5 41.0 27.8 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.0 22.1 9.5 71.4 55.6 38.4 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 5.9 4.9 53.4 46.9 31.5 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------