***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 3.9 10.9 3.6 70.4 54.2 30.7 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.7 15.2 5.4 112.1 68.6 38.6 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.5 8.8 4.0 77.8 57.2 35.0 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.2 13.9 5.3 85.6 60.4 33.0 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 4.2 11.9 4.6 73.0 56.7 31.7 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.4 17.2 9.3 100.4 66.8 43.7 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.6 5.5 113.9 69.1 39.7 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.2 17.3 6.0 84.2 59.4 39.1 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 3.3 7.6 3.9 57.9 51.1 30.0 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.9 9.8 5.2 68.0 53.9 35.5 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 2.4 7.8 4.0 74.1 56.5 31.8 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.4 11.7 4.5 82.2 59.1 35.6 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.3 5.6 90.9 63.1 39.1 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.2 6.0 83.8 60.0 40.6 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.2 8.1 4.9 90.4 62.1 33.5 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 7.0 4.8 82.5 59.9 34.7 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.4 12.1 5.1 98.0 64.5 37.4 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.2 10.4 6.3 68.9 54.0 38.6 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.9 13.5 5.0 106.5 66.7 37.0 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 12.4 8.2 95.4 63.1 44.4 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.4 6.7 3.1 53.2 47.8 27.6 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.0 13.4 5.2 99.0 64.4 36.5 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.8 4.5 92.9 62.4 35.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.5 9.5 5.0 68.6 54.3 37.5 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.4 11.1 4.9 81.4 58.7 34.4 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.6 3.8 70.1 55.7 36.8 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 4.2 15.1 4.9 84.4 59.3 34.0 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.2 9.9 5.2 81.2 59.7 32.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 15.1 6.9 79.5 57.8 40.6 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.7 14.4 5.1 108.5 67.4 38.6 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------