***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 34.2 38.6 23.5 53.6 33.3 31.2 38.1 52.3 67.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 37.2 40.0 26.2 58.7 33.2 31.7 40.0 51.2 63.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 35.4 39.4 25.3 58.1 34.1 32.3 38.6 52.9 69.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 31.7 33.8 25.5 52.4 31.1 29.0 35.4 51.0 69.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 32.6 36.8 28.0 55.8 33.1 29.9 36.8 50.1 65.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 25.2 28.6 36.5 60.6 35.5 33.3 26.7 40.2 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 31.4 34.4 26.2 58.2 32.5 31.0 34.8 46.3 59.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 54.0 61.9 33.8 64.5 35.1 32.9 59.6 78.2 98.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 29.3 31.8 28.6 53.5 31.1 28.4 33.1 45.9 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 42.2 46.2 35.1 58.9 31.9 29.9 47.2 62.8 80.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 27.5 33.8 25.9 62.0 37.6 32.3 30.8 43.2 57.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 31.6 37.8 24.5 61.2 36.1 32.8 35.5 49.9 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 18.3 22.9 26.9 58.6 37.0 33.0 20.9 30.4 41.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 47.3 59.3 37.3 67.9 40.0 34.6 52.4 70.5 90.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 14.8 16.5 20.8 48.4 28.5 26.6 19.0 30.8 45.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 21.1 26.8 26.6 62.1 39.6 34.5 23.1 33.1 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 33.8 36.2 26.8 60.4 33.8 32.5 35.7 46.7 58.7 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 42.5 47.0 41.5 62.4 32.9 30.9 47.0 61.1 76.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 36.0 39.3 26.0 58.9 34.1 32.0 38.5 51.3 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 43.9 49.9 44.3 72.0 37.6 35.3 46.7 58.8 72.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 33.0 38.2 24.8 54.9 34.2 31.5 37.0 51.2 67.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 37.1 42.1 27.8 63.6 36.4 34.1 39.8 52.8 67.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 42.5 46.4 26.7 58.8 35.6 32.3 44.6 56.4 69.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 46.6 53.0 34.7 61.7 35.4 32.4 50.9 66.3 83.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 32.6 34.3 27.9 52.5 30.3 29.4 36.4 49.0 63.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.4 25.7 23.1 62.7 38.9 35.9 22.5 32.0 42.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 39.0 42.1 28.3 54.4 32.6 31.0 42.7 59.2 77.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 18.5 20.2 22.9 49.9 29.9 27.8 22.2 33.7 47.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 57.7 64.4 41.5 65.5 34.3 32.3 63.3 81.0 100.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 37.5 40.4 25.8 58.6 33.9 32.1 39.6 52.4 66.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------