***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.1 14.3 17.1 -0.7 38.3 39.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.1 14.2 17.1 -0.7 39.2 39.8 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.0 15.7 17.0 -1.0 34.8 35.5 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.0 14.6 -0.6 39.0 39.8 10.5 11.7 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.5 12.6 15.2 -0.7 37.3 38.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.5 12.2 -0.9 34.0 34.8 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 15.2 14.5 17.1 -0.6 40.1 40.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 7.8 7.2 12.6 -0.3 44.1 44.5 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 14.8 14.3 15.7 -0.3 44.5 44.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.3 13.8 -0.1 47.3 47.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 14.5 13.9 15.0 -0.6 40.2 40.8 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.5 11.7 13.5 -0.7 37.5 38.3 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.0 13.8 -0.7 36.7 37.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 15.4 14.9 15.3 -0.3 44.8 45.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.8 15.1 16.7 -0.6 39.9 40.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.6 14.2 -0.9 33.7 34.6 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.1 17.0 -0.4 42.8 43.4 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.3 12.9 13.1 -0.3 45.4 45.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.2 17.0 -0.8 37.9 38.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.1 8.7 11.1 -0.3 43.8 44.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.7 13.9 16.5 -0.6 38.9 39.5 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.1 17.2 -0.4 43.2 43.7 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 14.5 13.6 16.8 -0.9 36.8 37.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.9 14.2 15.3 -0.4 42.3 42.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.7 16.1 -0.7 38.0 39.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.4 12.4 12.2 -1.1 30.5 31.3 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.4 13.5 16.5 -0.7 38.0 38.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.7 12.8 15.1 -0.8 36.3 37.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.5 12.4 -0.1 47.4 47.8 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.4 14.4 17.2 -0.8 38.1 38.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------