***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.3 17.9 -0.1 48.6 48.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.8 17.8 -0.1 48.6 48.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.8 18.1 -0.1 47.2 47.5 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.1 15.6 0.0 50.4 49.9 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.5 15.4 -0.2 45.6 46.6 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.6 13.8 0.0 50.9 50.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 17.8 -0.1 48.4 48.4 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.5 13.4 -0.2 45.9 47.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.7 15.6 -0.1 47.5 48.0 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.7 14.1 -0.1 48.6 48.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.3 15.0 -0.3 42.9 44.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.4 12.1 14.1 -0.4 42.1 44.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.6 13.5 -0.3 44.3 46.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.4 15.6 -0.1 48.9 48.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.5 17.2 0.1 53.0 51.6 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.8 14.4 -0.3 43.8 45.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.6 17.6 0.0 49.2 48.6 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.2 13.3 0.1 52.3 51.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.8 17.8 -0.1 47.6 47.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 9.2 11.1 0.1 52.0 51.8 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.5 16.9 -0.1 47.5 47.9 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 17.6 0.1 51.5 50.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 17.6 -0.2 45.5 46.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.2 15.4 0.0 49.6 49.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.9 14.8 16.4 -0.1 48.8 48.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.5 13.5 -0.1 47.3 48.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.6 17.1 0.0 49.4 49.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.0 16.0 0.0 50.8 50.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.8 12.0 12.7 0.0 51.1 50.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 18.0 -0.1 48.3 48.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------