***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.3 -0.5 41.5 42.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.3 15.0 18.3 -0.4 42.2 42.2 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 16.3 17.1 18.7 -0.5 40.7 41.2 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.5 16.0 -0.4 42.3 43.1 11.9 12.9 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 13.1 13.5 15.7 -0.7 36.4 38.5 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.9 14.4 -0.2 45.4 45.4 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.5 18.4 -0.4 43.0 42.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.0 13.8 -0.5 39.8 40.9 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.9 15.8 -0.6 37.6 39.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.9 14.5 -0.5 40.2 41.2 14.6 15.3 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 -0.8 35.0 37.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.4 14.6 -0.7 35.3 37.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.6 13.8 -0.7 34.8 38.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.0 -0.4 41.3 41.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.4 17.8 -0.2 46.4 45.9 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.4 14.8 14.7 -0.7 35.0 38.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.1 18.1 -0.4 42.5 42.5 15.6 16.5 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.3 13.7 -0.3 43.2 43.4 12.8 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.3 18.3 -0.5 41.4 41.6 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.3 11.4 -0.3 43.8 44.2 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 14.1 14.7 17.3 -0.6 38.7 40.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.0 18.2 -0.3 45.0 44.5 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.6 18.2 -0.6 39.4 40.0 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.3 15.8 -0.4 41.1 41.5 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.7 16.7 -0.5 40.5 41.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.7 13.7 -0.6 37.2 39.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.7 17.5 -0.4 41.7 42.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.0 16.5 -0.3 43.2 43.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.4 12.2 13.2 -0.3 43.8 44.0 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.6 18.5 -0.4 42.7 42.6 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------