***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.8 25.7 26.2 -2.0 28.2 29.7 26.2 27.5 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 25.2 25.3 26.4 -2.1 28.4 29.6 25.7 27.2 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 24.8 25.0 25.8 -2.6 24.7 26.0 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 17.7 17.9 22.6 -2.4 24.1 25.3 18.8 20.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 24.7 24.8 23.4 -3.1 20.1 21.3 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 23.5 23.4 20.9 -3.0 18.4 19.7 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 25.3 25.3 26.3 -1.8 29.4 30.8 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 12.8 12.7 20.8 -3.4 17.6 18.8 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 24.3 24.5 24.4 -2.9 21.3 22.6 25.7 27.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 24.0 24.0 22.0 -3.1 20.0 21.3 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 24.0 24.1 23.4 -3.6 17.7 18.8 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 23.3 23.1 22.0 -3.8 15.8 16.8 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 24.1 24.0 22.8 -3.9 15.4 16.5 26.0 27.5 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 24.9 25.1 24.3 -2.3 26.3 27.5 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 26.1 26.4 25.9 -2.5 23.7 24.7 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 24.7 24.6 22.9 -3.7 16.4 17.4 26.5 28.1 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 24.9 25.0 26.1 -1.7 30.7 31.9 25.2 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 23.6 23.6 21.1 -2.9 21.2 22.6 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 24.7 24.9 26.2 -2.2 28.1 29.1 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 19.1 19.1 18.9 -3.0 19.4 20.9 20.6 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 24.9 25.0 25.4 -2.6 23.4 24.8 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.7 25.8 26.4 -1.4 34.7 35.6 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 24.6 24.9 25.8 -2.5 26.1 27.1 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 24.1 24.3 23.9 -2.7 22.9 24.4 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 25.3 25.4 24.7 -2.3 25.6 27.1 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 23.8 23.7 21.6 -3.7 16.1 17.4 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.3 25.6 -1.9 28.7 30.2 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 25.9 26.0 23.7 -2.8 21.1 22.2 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 18.8 18.8 20.4 -2.8 21.4 22.9 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 25.1 25.2 26.4 -2.1 28.4 29.6 25.6 27.1 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------