***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.7 28.2 -0.4 44.3 46.2 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.6 28.1 -0.5 44.1 46.1 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.4 28.5 -0.5 44.1 45.8 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.7 26.4 -0.3 46.5 47.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.6 26.3 -0.8 39.6 42.2 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.8 24.2 -0.2 46.3 47.2 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.4 27.4 28.0 -0.4 44.1 46.2 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.6 24.7 -0.7 40.5 42.6 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.4 26.5 -0.7 41.0 43.3 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.3 25.3 -0.5 42.6 44.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.1 26.1 -0.9 37.5 40.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.8 26.3 26.0 -1.0 36.7 39.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.2 24.9 -1.1 35.0 38.4 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.3 26.1 -0.4 44.3 45.7 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.0 28.0 0.0 49.6 49.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.0 25.7 -0.9 37.5 40.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.0 26.9 27.8 -0.6 42.6 44.6 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.5 24.6 -0.4 45.1 46.5 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.1 28.3 -0.4 44.5 46.1 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 21.0 22.0 22.0 -0.5 42.5 44.3 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 28.5 27.4 27.5 -0.6 42.4 44.5 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.4 27.8 28.1 -0.1 48.1 48.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.3 28.2 -0.6 42.9 44.7 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.0 27.0 26.2 -0.4 44.3 45.8 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.7 27.6 26.3 -0.5 42.8 45.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 26.5 27.4 26.1 -0.6 41.3 43.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.2 27.2 -0.4 44.4 46.3 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.6 28.8 26.9 -0.2 46.7 47.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.8 23.5 -0.4 44.2 45.8 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.4 28.2 -0.4 44.9 46.7 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------