***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.0 29.5 -0.5 43.5 43.5 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.1 29.4 -0.5 42.6 43.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 27.0 28.1 29.8 -0.5 43.2 43.2 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.6 27.8 -0.1 48.0 47.0 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.3 27.6 -0.7 40.0 40.9 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.7 25.5 -0.1 47.8 47.1 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.1 29.3 -0.6 42.2 43.2 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.2 26.0 -0.6 41.4 42.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 26.8 27.8 27.7 -0.7 40.9 41.6 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.6 26.6 -0.5 43.0 43.4 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 26.9 27.6 27.4 -0.9 38.0 39.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 26.3 26.9 27.4 -1.0 37.5 39.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.0 26.3 -1.1 36.0 38.2 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.7 27.2 -0.6 41.5 42.2 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.2 29.8 29.4 0.1 51.4 49.4 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.1 28.8 27.1 -0.8 38.7 40.1 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.5 29.0 -0.7 40.6 42.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 25.9 27.0 25.9 -0.3 45.2 45.0 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.7 29.7 -0.5 43.3 43.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.6 22.6 23.3 -0.4 43.7 44.2 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.9 28.7 -0.6 41.5 41.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.3 29.4 -0.2 47.0 46.9 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.8 27.7 29.5 -0.6 41.6 42.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 26.4 27.5 27.4 -0.5 43.4 43.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.3 28.4 27.7 -0.6 42.2 42.5 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.3 27.6 -0.5 43.8 44.4 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 26.8 27.8 28.5 -0.5 43.2 43.3 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 28.3 29.6 28.3 -0.1 48.7 47.6 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.2 24.7 -0.4 44.2 44.5 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.9 27.9 29.6 -0.5 43.5 43.8 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------