***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.9 28.3 -0.6 39.5 40.7 27.6 28.2 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.5 28.2 -0.7 38.1 39.6 27.3 28.0 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.3 27.4 28.3 -0.9 36.0 37.4 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.4 20.6 25.8 -0.5 40.5 41.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.0 -1.1 30.6 32.4 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.3 26.5 23.8 -0.7 35.3 36.8 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.5 28.2 -0.6 39.1 40.5 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 15.4 15.5 24.1 -1.2 29.1 31.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.0 27.2 26.6 -1.0 32.4 34.1 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.7 26.9 24.9 -1.0 32.4 34.2 27.0 27.8 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.0 -1.4 26.9 28.9 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 26.1 26.0 25.4 -1.5 25.1 27.4 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 27.0 27.0 25.0 -1.6 23.3 25.6 27.5 28.4 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.2 26.2 -0.7 36.4 37.9 27.1 27.7 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.8 28.1 -0.4 42.2 43.1 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 27.7 27.7 25.5 -1.4 26.1 28.2 28.1 29.0 29.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.6 26.9 27.9 -0.7 37.7 39.3 26.8 27.4 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.1 26.3 24.2 -0.8 34.6 36.5 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.1 28.3 -0.7 38.0 39.4 26.9 27.5 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 21.7 21.8 21.7 -1.0 31.1 33.4 21.9 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.4 27.5 -0.9 34.6 36.2 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.7 28.2 -0.3 45.1 45.8 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.2 28.1 -0.9 35.2 36.7 27.1 27.7 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.8 26.2 -0.8 35.0 36.7 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.7 26.6 -0.7 36.9 38.2 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.1 27.1 25.3 -1.2 29.3 31.4 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.3 27.4 -0.6 39.8 41.0 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.6 26.6 -0.7 38.3 39.6 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.3 21.5 23.2 -0.8 33.5 35.6 21.5 22.3 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.4 28.3 -0.7 39.2 40.5 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------