***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 10.8 14.9 19.9 102.3 65.9 60.6 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 12.6 18.2 19.5 116.2 69.7 62.0 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 25.2 31.8 29.2 165.5 79.0 72.9 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 16.2 19.5 22.1 136.0 74.3 68.6 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 23.0 33.0 33.6 201.2 84.9 80.7 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.9 12.8 23.9 155.7 78.3 72.8 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.7 16.6 18.1 108.5 67.6 60.2 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 27.2 49.0 48.5 251.8 89.8 84.7 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 19.1 30.1 36.4 214.5 86.8 82.1 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 27.1 54.6 53.8 269.7 91.7 86.8 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 19.1 34.4 40.4 254.7 90.1 85.8 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 16.4 25.8 32.2 218.5 86.9 81.9 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 12.6 21.2 35.1 235.5 88.6 82.9 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 31.1 54.0 52.5 268.7 91.3 83.9 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.1 10.0 17.1 117.2 70.5 61.4 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 11.9 17.3 30.0 206.8 85.4 80.4 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 13.1 16.2 15.2 92.2 62.9 56.9 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 24.5 44.8 51.3 247.3 90.7 85.4 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 12.9 20.1 21.9 129.4 73.1 65.5 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 20.0 37.5 56.0 274.3 93.1 88.7 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 23.6 30.3 30.8 175.0 81.2 76.5 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.5 16.9 16.3 99.5 65.1 57.5 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 26.7 32.3 27.3 157.4 78.2 71.0 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 35.2 59.0 46.1 248.7 90.3 84.1 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 11.3 15.5 20.8 101.8 65.8 61.2 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 12.5 18.9 20.8 184.3 82.8 74.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 11.6 15.1 18.6 92.7 62.8 57.8 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.7 10.7 23.0 148.2 77.0 70.1 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 32.7 58.5 52.8 260.2 91.9 86.5 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 15.3 20.8 20.9 120.0 70.8 62.7 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------