***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.5 12.6 92.3 62.6 51.5 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.2 10.9 89.5 61.7 47.2 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.2 12.2 86.6 60.5 51.4 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.4 11.8 86.8 59.5 51.3 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.7 9.7 74.8 55.9 44.6 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.4 10.0 13.1 85.0 58.9 50.6 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 13.8 11.3 94.8 63.5 45.5 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.1 18.8 11.2 81.1 57.7 48.1 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.6 8.6 13.4 91.6 61.1 52.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.3 11.4 76.5 55.7 45.7 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.2 9.6 75.5 55.1 45.7 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.5 9.8 81.6 58.6 48.2 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.9 9.6 78.5 57.9 45.8 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.4 19.4 15.2 94.9 62.6 52.9 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 7.6 7.8 71.3 53.6 44.3 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.7 9.7 78.1 57.3 47.4 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 14.2 11.0 96.1 63.6 45.7 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.7 15.0 89.2 59.2 50.3 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.8 13.4 11.6 92.5 62.7 50.6 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 13.8 10.9 71.2 51.2 40.4 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.2 13.5 13.7 93.9 62.5 54.8 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.5 11.5 102.3 65.4 47.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.3 14.8 12.7 94.5 63.3 53.7 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.1 16.3 14.8 93.6 61.9 53.4 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.2 8.4 9.7 67.0 51.8 40.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.4 8.9 11.0 97.0 63.2 52.6 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 12.5 85.1 59.1 47.8 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.1 9.2 74.6 55.1 46.7 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 20.8 15.7 91.1 59.4 50.3 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.3 16.5 11.7 94.2 63.4 49.8 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------