***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 17.4 18.3 13.7 125.8 72.5 56.8 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 15.2 11.9 124.2 72.1 56.3 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.6 21.2 12.9 119.3 70.8 53.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 24.0 14.4 142.7 76.0 52.7 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.7 19.4 12.5 128.6 72.9 48.6 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.8 13.1 113.9 69.1 52.6 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.4 12.2 128.9 73.0 56.8 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.2 27.3 12.7 113.1 68.9 47.9 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.9 21.9 13.3 120.5 70.8 50.5 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 23.9 13.8 113.0 68.7 46.6 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.3 19.5 11.1 133.7 73.9 47.8 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.7 20.6 10.9 121.8 71.4 50.0 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.7 11.3 128.6 73.1 50.0 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 23.4 17.3 116.6 69.8 54.6 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.1 13.7 12.1 149.1 77.4 54.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.3 15.9 11.6 135.9 74.6 50.3 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 9.5 12.0 127.0 72.6 54.4 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 23.3 17.1 118.1 69.8 52.4 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 18.9 12.0 122.1 71.6 56.0 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 21.8 15.4 110.8 67.6 52.2 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.5 20.0 13.0 120.8 71.1 52.3 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 18.0 12.0 115.5 69.9 52.4 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.4 16.6 12.8 123.1 71.7 56.5 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 23.7 16.3 124.4 71.8 54.8 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.9 22.5 15.3 137.2 74.9 54.4 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.7 9.3 134.1 74.2 53.2 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 20.7 15.8 135.0 74.4 56.6 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.6 17.4 13.1 141.5 75.5 52.5 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 29.1 17.6 113.9 68.4 53.3 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 15.3 12.3 125.2 72.3 56.1 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------