***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.8 17.1 9.2 108.8 68.8 44.7 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.2 14.6 8.9 102.0 67.3 45.1 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.1 9.0 97.2 65.9 46.5 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 14.1 7.0 80.1 60.8 44.0 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.7 13.0 6.4 77.7 59.7 42.8 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.7 7.6 78.5 59.5 45.6 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 11.4 9.0 108.6 68.6 45.1 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 17.7 8.0 82.0 59.8 45.1 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.3 7.8 84.6 62.0 45.6 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.1 8.9 82.2 60.6 45.6 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.2 5.9 84.1 61.2 43.6 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.5 6.2 84.1 60.9 43.8 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.1 5.8 73.1 58.0 41.9 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 16.5 13.1 97.3 65.8 49.1 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.1 5.9 82.5 62.0 40.4 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.3 6.4 82.5 61.3 44.0 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 4.1 14.0 9.8 113.5 69.9 46.1 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.6 11.5 85.3 61.0 49.2 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.5 9.2 99.1 66.7 46.4 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 11.2 83.4 58.3 48.6 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.1 10.2 7.9 89.0 63.7 45.3 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.0 10.6 105.7 68.2 48.2 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.4 9.9 100.7 67.0 48.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.2 10.6 88.0 63.3 49.1 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 14.1 9.1 102.7 67.4 44.2 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.3 4.3 63.0 54.0 37.9 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.1 22.5 10.0 112.5 69.9 45.7 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.9 6.5 76.0 59.8 41.9 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.8 12.0 83.7 59.8 49.5 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.5 9.2 103.9 67.7 45.5 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------