***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 58.0 64.6 55.4 105.7 63.2 58.2 38.1 52.3 67.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 55.1 62.1 51.2 108.3 64.3 57.8 40.0 51.2 63.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 71.5 74.1 63.4 122.1 69.7 64.5 38.6 52.9 69.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 57.0 70.5 55.3 113.5 66.9 61.9 35.4 51.0 69.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 53.9 73.8 62.2 130.8 72.8 68.0 36.8 50.1 65.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 44.9 55.8 57.7 111.5 65.5 61.7 26.7 40.2 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 51.0 58.1 50.7 109.2 64.6 57.5 34.8 46.3 59.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 106.7 120.4 80.4 149.5 78.6 73.5 59.6 78.2 98.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 62.5 70.3 70.9 136.6 74.9 69.8 33.1 45.9 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 88.6 101.5 87.9 152.5 79.8 74.6 47.2 62.8 80.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 64.2 73.6 67.0 152.3 79.1 74.5 30.8 43.2 57.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 68.4 78.5 59.2 137.5 74.9 69.9 35.5 49.9 66.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 44.7 50.7 61.8 140.7 75.7 71.7 20.9 30.4 41.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 100.0 117.3 98.1 153.5 80.7 72.8 52.4 70.5 90.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 36.1 43.8 42.9 105.0 64.2 58.6 19.0 30.8 45.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 47.9 52.3 57.7 133.5 73.6 69.5 23.1 33.1 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 51.0 55.8 48.0 104.4 62.4 56.2 35.7 46.7 58.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 82.6 94.1 94.9 145.4 78.9 73.0 47.0 61.1 76.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 55.9 65.7 54.7 112.6 66.1 59.7 38.5 51.3 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 77.5 87.9 93.5 147.6 80.3 75.5 46.7 58.8 72.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 69.1 73.8 65.4 126.0 71.3 66.9 37.0 51.2 67.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 58.7 63.9 50.4 105.2 62.4 55.7 39.8 52.8 67.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 70.5 73.0 62.7 122.7 70.0 63.3 44.6 56.4 69.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 89.5 102.7 87.9 147.9 79.0 72.5 50.9 66.3 83.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 54.5 58.5 54.8 100.0 60.9 55.8 36.4 49.0 63.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 48 52 100 43.5 47.2 45.4 125.1 71.1 66.3 22.5 32.0 42.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 66.5 72.6 56.9 102.8 61.8 56.4 42.7 59.2 77.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 38.4 48.9 51.8 113.9 67.3 62.3 22.2 33.7 47.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 109.0 123.7 98.1 146.3 79.8 74.0 63.3 81.0 100.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 57.4 66.2 54.2 111.4 65.7 58.9 39.6 52.4 66.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------