***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 13.9 13.9 15.9 -1.3 26.9 30.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.9 -1.1 29.1 32.2 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.4 15.9 -1.1 29.6 32.1 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 10.0 9.6 13.6 -1.6 21.3 25.2 10.5 11.7 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.4 12.3 14.2 -1.2 27.9 30.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.1 12.0 -1.3 25.3 27.7 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 13.8 13.8 15.9 -1.3 26.8 30.4 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.8 12.3 -0.8 35.2 36.8 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.6 13.6 14.7 -1.2 27.9 30.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.7 13.0 -0.9 32.5 34.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.7 -1.1 28.4 30.7 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.6 13.0 -0.9 33.0 34.7 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 12.6 12.5 12.9 -1.2 26.9 29.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.4 14.6 -0.9 32.7 34.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.0 13.4 14.5 -2.2 11.6 15.7 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.4 13.6 -1.2 27.3 29.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 14.1 14.1 15.3 -1.3 25.1 28.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.5 12.1 -0.8 34.1 35.7 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.8 16.0 -1.0 31.4 34.0 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.5 10.1 -0.8 35.0 36.3 8.4 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.4 13.3 15.5 -1.3 26.0 28.8 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.7 -1.0 30.5 33.2 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.8 -0.9 32.8 34.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.1 13.6 14.2 -1.0 31.6 33.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 13.2 13.0 14.6 -1.5 22.6 26.5 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.7 -1.0 29.6 32.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 12.8 12.6 15.1 -1.4 23.7 27.6 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 12.2 11.9 14.1 -1.8 18.4 21.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 10.8 11.5 -0.8 34.3 35.6 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.1 -1.1 29.4 32.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------