***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.7 19.0 0.1 51.6 52.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.9 19.3 0.4 58.3 56.6 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.6 18.8 -0.1 48.7 50.1 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.1 16.8 -0.6 35.6 40.1 11.9 13.0 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.6 16.6 -0.4 40.3 44.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.6 15.2 -0.4 38.8 42.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 19.5 0.4 59.7 57.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.5 7.8 14.6 -0.6 35.7 40.7 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.0 16.8 -0.4 41.0 44.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.8 15.2 -0.4 38.7 42.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.7 16.3 -0.3 42.5 45.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.4 15.7 -0.5 36.6 41.4 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.7 15.4 -0.4 37.9 41.8 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.6 16.7 -0.3 42.3 45.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.6 15.7 17.3 -0.8 31.2 35.3 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.0 16.1 -0.4 38.8 42.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.1 18.9 0.5 61.2 58.1 15.7 16.6 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.5 -0.4 40.2 43.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 19.1 0.3 55.8 54.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.0 12.9 -0.4 39.6 43.6 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 14.8 17.9 -0.3 43.0 46.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.7 18.6 0.4 58.1 56.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.1 18.5 0.0 50.6 51.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.3 16.5 -0.3 41.9 44.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.0 17.2 -0.2 44.8 47.2 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.1 -0.7 32.8 37.3 13.4 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.3 18.1 0.0 50.9 51.6 14.1 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.3 17.1 -0.8 31.3 35.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.2 14.0 -0.3 42.9 45.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 19.4 0.3 56.3 55.4 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------