***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 17.7 -0.2 42.0 43.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 18.0 0.0 49.6 49.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.8 17.6 -0.3 40.7 42.4 16.5 17.1 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 11.6 11.6 15.5 -0.7 26.1 30.7 11.8 12.4 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.5 -0.5 34.0 37.2 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.9 -0.5 33.3 36.3 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.4 18.1 0.0 50.7 50.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.7 13.7 -0.4 37.5 39.9 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.6 15.8 -0.5 35.0 37.7 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.5 14.3 -0.4 37.3 39.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.4 15.2 -0.4 37.7 40.2 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.3 14.6 -0.4 35.9 38.5 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.3 -0.6 31.0 34.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.2 15.8 -0.4 36.4 39.2 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 15.4 15.2 16.1 -1.1 18.3 23.2 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.6 15.0 -0.5 33.3 36.4 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.9 17.6 0.0 50.5 50.2 15.3 15.9 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.0 13.5 -0.4 37.8 40.1 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 17.8 -0.1 47.5 47.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.0 11.8 -0.4 37.9 40.1 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.2 14.4 16.8 -0.5 34.3 37.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 17.5 0.0 48.5 48.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.5 17.4 -0.2 42.9 44.1 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.8 15.5 -0.4 36.7 39.3 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.1 -0.5 34.3 37.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 13.1 13.2 14.1 -0.7 27.3 30.6 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.4 16.9 -0.3 40.1 42.0 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.1 15.8 -0.9 22.3 26.9 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 12.9 -0.3 39.8 41.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 18.1 -0.1 47.7 48.1 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------