***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.9 26.4 25.9 -1.1 36.1 37.3 26.2 27.5 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.8 26.4 26.1 -0.8 39.2 40.3 26.0 27.2 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.3 26.0 -1.0 36.7 38.0 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 18.0 18.3 23.5 -1.8 27.0 28.9 18.8 20.1 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.0 26.5 24.5 -1.2 35.0 36.3 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 27.0 25.4 22.6 -1.0 36.5 37.7 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.3 26.1 -0.7 39.9 40.9 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.5 14.6 22.7 -1.2 34.7 36.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.1 25.3 -1.1 36.1 37.4 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.6 25.8 23.5 -1.1 35.6 37.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.1 24.4 -1.1 36.3 37.6 25.8 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.2 23.8 -1.1 35.5 36.7 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.1 26.6 24.0 -0.9 38.3 39.3 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.7 26.2 24.6 -0.9 37.6 39.0 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 26.4 26.2 24.9 -2.3 20.3 22.7 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 28.8 27.0 24.3 -1.0 37.0 38.1 26.6 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 25.1 25.8 25.8 -0.8 39.3 40.3 25.3 26.6 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.8 25.3 22.6 -1.0 37.0 38.3 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.0 26.1 -0.9 38.3 39.5 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.7 21.1 20.8 -1.0 37.0 38.3 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.1 25.8 -1.2 34.6 36.1 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 25.6 26.1 25.5 -0.9 37.4 38.6 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.0 25.8 -1.0 36.9 38.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.3 25.7 24.4 -1.0 37.2 38.6 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 25.6 26.0 24.4 -1.4 32.0 33.6 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.8 25.9 23.5 -1.2 34.6 36.0 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.9 25.1 -1.2 34.6 36.0 25.7 27.0 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 26.6 26.7 24.3 -1.9 26.0 28.0 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.2 20.7 21.9 -0.9 38.3 39.6 20.2 21.7 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.2 26.2 -0.9 38.7 39.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------