***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.1 28.1 0.1 51.9 52.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.8 28.4 0.4 56.4 55.1 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.4 28.0 0.0 49.4 50.1 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 19.9 20.7 26.1 -0.7 39.4 41.9 20.1 21.6 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.7 26.2 -0.4 44.1 45.8 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.8 26.8 23.9 -0.5 41.3 43.6 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.0 28.6 0.7 60.3 57.7 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.3 24.5 -0.4 43.4 45.2 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.2 26.5 -0.3 46.0 47.4 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.9 25.1 -0.3 45.0 46.5 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.3 25.7 -0.3 45.7 47.1 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.1 27.2 25.5 -0.4 43.5 45.2 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 27.2 28.3 24.9 -0.5 41.9 44.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.8 26.0 -0.3 45.7 47.3 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.0 28.4 26.4 -1.0 35.2 38.1 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.9 25.4 -0.5 42.8 44.7 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.4 28.3 28.3 0.6 59.7 57.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.9 27.2 24.4 -0.3 45.7 47.0 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.7 28.2 28.3 0.2 53.1 52.7 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.7 22.3 -0.4 44.1 45.7 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.4 27.3 -0.2 46.3 47.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.9 28.5 27.9 0.2 53.4 52.8 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.1 27.7 0.0 49.3 50.1 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 26.4 27.6 26.0 -0.2 46.7 47.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.4 26.4 -0.2 46.9 48.1 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 26.8 27.7 24.8 -0.7 39.8 42.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.3 27.3 0.2 52.4 52.3 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.4 26.2 -0.9 36.3 39.2 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.5 23.4 -0.2 46.4 47.4 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.5 28.5 0.3 55.1 54.2 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------