***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.6 28.9 -0.3 45.3 47.7 26.8 27.9 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.0 29.4 0.1 52.2 52.3 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.3 28.9 -0.4 43.0 45.8 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 19.1 19.3 26.9 -1.3 29.9 34.9 19.5 20.8 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.1 26.9 -0.9 34.9 39.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 25.1 25.6 24.5 -1.2 31.1 35.6 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 28.3 28.1 29.4 0.3 54.7 54.1 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.1 25.2 -0.9 35.6 39.6 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.0 27.2 -0.8 37.1 41.2 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.3 26.8 25.8 -0.8 36.8 40.8 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 26.4 26.9 26.5 -0.8 37.0 40.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 25.7 26.2 26.2 -0.9 35.4 39.3 26.0 27.1 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.9 25.6 -1.2 32.6 37.0 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.4 27.1 26.9 -0.5 41.9 45.1 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 27.2 27.1 27.2 -1.6 25.1 30.4 27.7 28.9 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.6 26.2 -1.1 33.3 37.6 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.1 27.9 29.2 0.4 56.5 55.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 27.2 26.0 25.1 -0.7 38.1 41.9 25.6 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.4 29.2 0.0 49.4 50.4 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.5 23.0 -0.8 36.6 40.5 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.0 28.1 -0.8 37.8 41.9 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.5 28.0 28.9 0.1 52.2 52.2 26.7 27.9 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.4 28.7 -0.2 45.9 47.9 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.6 26.8 -0.6 40.0 43.5 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.2 27.2 -0.7 38.0 42.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 26.2 26.4 25.5 -1.4 29.0 34.1 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 26.1 27.1 28.1 -0.3 44.5 47.0 26.3 27.5 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 27.2 27.3 27.0 -1.5 26.7 31.9 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.6 21.2 24.1 -0.7 38.5 42.2 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.7 29.4 0.0 50.0 50.9 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------