***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 27.0 28.6 30.0 -0.1 48.2 49.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.1 29.1 30.5 0.3 55.5 54.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.5 30.0 -0.2 46.4 48.9 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.7 28.0 -1.0 33.4 38.9 20.6 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.3 28.0 -0.7 38.5 43.4 27.8 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.5 26.9 25.7 -0.9 33.5 38.7 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.2 29.3 30.5 0.4 57.4 55.2 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.1 26.1 -0.7 38.3 43.2 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.9 28.2 -0.6 40.5 45.1 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.5 26.8 -0.6 40.1 44.7 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 26.9 28.0 27.6 -0.5 41.1 45.3 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 26.2 27.0 27.3 -0.7 38.1 43.1 26.6 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 27.5 28.0 26.8 -0.9 34.4 39.8 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 26.5 28.1 27.8 -0.2 46.5 49.0 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.5 28.5 28.4 -1.2 29.2 35.0 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.1 28.8 27.4 -0.8 36.7 41.6 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.6 28.8 30.2 0.6 59.2 56.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 25.8 26.8 26.0 -0.5 41.6 45.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.6 28.4 30.3 0.2 53.2 52.7 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.6 22.3 23.8 -0.7 38.4 43.0 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 26.9 28.0 29.1 -0.5 41.0 45.4 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 26.9 29.0 29.9 0.3 55.8 53.7 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.6 28.4 29.7 0.0 50.2 51.0 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 26.2 27.6 27.8 -0.4 43.9 47.5 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.4 28.2 -0.6 40.6 44.5 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.5 27.6 26.7 -1.2 29.6 36.1 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.8 28.3 29.1 -0.2 47.1 49.0 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.4 28.6 28.2 -1.2 30.7 36.4 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.1 24.9 -0.5 41.9 45.8 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.8 28.7 30.5 0.2 53.2 52.9 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------