***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.0 28.2 -0.3 42.7 44.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.1 28.6 0.0 50.5 50.7 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.7 28.2 -0.4 40.6 42.8 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 20.1 19.9 26.1 -1.2 25.2 28.8 20.3 21.1 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.8 26.4 -0.8 32.8 35.8 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.3 26.3 24.2 -0.9 29.5 32.4 26.5 27.2 27.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.2 28.1 28.6 0.2 53.9 53.2 27.3 28.0 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.6 15.7 24.6 -0.8 32.2 35.3 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.8 -0.7 35.2 38.0 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.1 25.3 -0.7 34.2 37.1 27.0 27.8 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.4 26.0 -0.7 35.3 37.9 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.4 26.5 25.7 -0.8 32.7 35.5 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.6 25.3 -0.9 31.5 34.2 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.4 26.3 -0.5 38.8 41.4 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 27.9 27.7 26.7 -1.5 19.3 23.1 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 28.0 28.2 25.8 -0.8 32.1 34.9 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.7 27.7 28.4 0.2 54.8 53.6 26.8 27.5 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.4 24.5 -0.6 35.5 38.4 26.3 27.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.9 27.5 28.5 -0.1 47.2 48.1 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 21.8 22.0 22.5 -0.7 33.2 36.2 22.0 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.3 27.5 27.6 -0.7 35.0 37.9 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.9 28.0 0.0 48.8 49.2 27.3 28.0 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.5 28.0 -0.3 42.9 44.7 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.0 26.3 -0.5 37.5 40.2 26.8 27.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.6 -0.7 34.2 37.0 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.1 27.1 25.1 -1.1 26.7 29.8 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.4 27.4 -0.4 41.5 43.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 28.0 27.9 26.4 -1.4 22.3 26.0 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.7 23.6 -0.6 36.3 39.1 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.8 28.7 -0.1 48.2 49.0 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------