***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 14.8 20.5 34.2 187.6 84.5 73.6 5.1 8.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 19.0 25.2 30.3 173.2 82.2 72.0 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 22.8 30.7 31.2 172.7 82.0 73.1 7.6 12.8 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 17.1 21.3 28.0 156.5 78.9 71.4 4.5 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 18.3 21.5 26.4 139.4 75.2 69.1 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.4 11.8 25.0 146.2 76.7 69.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.9 21.3 28.8 168.4 81.6 70.6 5.7 9.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.7 26.0 23.1 125.3 71.4 64.9 6.0 12.4 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.6 15.9 25.7 136.2 74.4 66.6 3.3 6.9 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 19.0 22.3 26.7 132.0 73.4 66.7 4.4 9.6 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 12.5 14.6 21.8 130.9 73.2 66.6 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 8.9 14.6 17.9 115.4 68.9 62.3 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.3 9.3 20.0 114.6 68.6 61.6 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 27.1 37.4 34.9 179.7 83.8 77.5 8.3 14.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 9.0 12.6 25.4 175.3 82.2 73.7 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 9.3 11.3 22.6 137.9 74.5 68.0 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 19.3 24.1 27.5 158.5 79.5 68.5 6.3 10.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 20.1 23.9 29.0 136.5 74.4 66.7 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 17.6 23.1 31.4 173.0 82.0 72.8 6.6 10.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 17.1 18.7 24.5 125.1 71.1 64.4 5.7 10.1 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 19.3 25.2 30.1 169.2 80.6 73.2 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 18.1 23.8 31.0 168.1 81.3 71.1 4.8 9.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 23.5 31.9 31.8 165.1 80.6 72.8 8.1 13.7 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 29.7 36.8 31.4 161.4 79.7 72.8 9.4 16.0 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.6 21.5 34.3 166.7 80.8 72.6 5.5 9.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.4 10.6 15.6 111.3 67.6 61.0 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.5 22.0 34.5 167.4 81.0 71.3 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.4 10.5 25.0 160.1 79.4 71.7 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 26.4 30.7 28.0 136.1 74.3 67.0 8.9 15.5 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 23.3 30.4 31.3 177.9 83.0 73.2 9.6 14.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------