***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.3 29.1 16.2 175.4 82.0 51.7 6.0 10.9 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.4 28.2 16.9 186.5 84.2 53.9 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.9 23.6 16.0 171.8 81.6 51.8 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.9 17.2 15.1 128.0 72.6 42.4 4.4 8.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.9 16.8 133.4 73.7 47.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.0 17.9 102.1 65.6 47.7 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.9 26.6 16.7 171.5 81.7 52.1 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 20.3 15.9 100.8 64.9 46.8 7.2 13.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 14.5 17.0 126.0 72.0 46.6 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.6 18.0 109.1 67.1 46.8 5.5 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.9 13.4 109.0 67.6 44.3 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.2 12.0 103.4 66.0 43.2 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.6 14.3 108.5 67.7 45.9 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 34.4 20.7 157.9 79.3 56.3 6.9 13.2 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.8 15.2 11.2 110.9 68.4 41.4 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.4 14.4 115.3 69.6 45.9 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 22.8 14.3 148.4 77.0 49.8 3.8 8.1 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 18.8 20.9 111.2 67.0 48.8 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 27.4 16.3 183.9 83.7 53.1 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 19.6 20.8 107.3 65.7 52.9 7.5 12.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.2 22.9 15.0 147.2 76.7 47.1 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.2 22.5 14.6 152.9 78.1 49.3 4.4 8.9 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.2 28.1 16.3 174.2 82.0 52.4 5.0 9.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.8 23.5 19.3 137.3 74.2 51.4 5.8 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 17.7 18.4 143.7 76.2 50.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.7 8.9 11.3 104.3 66.9 48.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.3 29.1 18.9 159.8 79.3 52.7 7.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 13.2 13.5 120.2 70.8 41.9 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.7 24.8 21.6 111.7 67.2 50.9 7.2 14.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 6.4 26.8 17.3 189.0 84.7 54.4 6.4 10.6 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------