***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.9 23.8 9.2 152.8 78.0 44.6 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.3 14.2 8.3 123.6 72.0 47.0 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.5 25.0 8.7 140.1 75.5 46.2 4.0 9.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 23.3 9.4 126.3 72.7 45.1 4.2 9.6 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.4 25.1 9.8 132.3 74.1 46.0 5.6 11.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 31.8 15.1 177.8 81.9 55.6 5.0 10.0 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.3 15.3 8.9 123.6 72.1 46.6 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.4 36.3 12.3 135.1 74.4 51.2 9.1 17.0 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.8 24.0 10.2 133.9 74.2 44.5 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 7.0 30.9 13.0 132.2 73.8 48.3 7.3 14.3 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.9 21.8 8.9 131.4 73.7 45.9 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.0 24.5 8.4 134.9 74.4 49.1 5.9 11.4 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.1 21.5 10.8 168.0 80.5 53.7 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.1 24.2 11.2 115.9 70.1 49.5 6.7 12.7 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.6 13.4 8.2 132.1 74.2 46.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.1 21.8 9.7 154.3 78.2 50.3 6.2 10.3 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.8 8.4 115.7 69.9 44.7 2.8 5.0 7.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 27.4 16.1 137.6 75.0 51.5 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.8 20.2 7.8 123.6 72.1 46.1 4.6 9.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 28.0 18.2 152.1 77.9 57.0 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.8 23.8 8.8 140.9 75.6 43.2 4.3 9.3 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.0 20.1 8.3 115.4 70.2 46.8 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.4 17.5 7.7 120.6 71.5 44.5 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.9 23.6 12.1 127.6 72.9 49.0 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 24.8 11.7 148.6 77.2 50.8 4.0 9.0 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 19.2 8.7 195.9 84.7 53.9 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 26.0 11.5 150.4 77.6 48.7 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.2 18.0 8.6 127.4 73.1 44.8 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 34.8 16.4 140.5 75.6 53.4 12.1 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.8 19.8 8.5 130.4 73.5 46.9 3.6 7.9 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------