***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.0 14.5 4.8 107.8 67.9 38.6 3.9 8.0 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.4 5.0 85.1 60.3 43.0 4.4 8.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.5 4.8 95.1 63.7 41.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.7 26.6 7.3 170.9 81.1 47.5 3.5 7.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.3 18.3 6.8 147.8 76.9 46.7 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.9 22.7 11.8 183.7 82.8 52.8 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.1 5.5 100.4 65.2 45.0 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.6 23.1 9.3 125.0 72.2 48.3 5.7 11.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 3.2 12.3 6.2 119.2 71.1 43.6 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.0 14.0 9.0 115.3 69.9 46.4 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.5 13.5 6.2 130.0 73.3 43.9 2.4 5.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.4 22.3 7.0 149.9 77.1 46.1 3.2 7.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.6 18.3 8.9 197.6 85.1 50.6 1.6 4.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.6 11.9 7.9 81.3 60.0 39.8 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.1 14.0 7.1 171.9 81.2 45.1 2.4 4.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.4 11.5 7.1 173.1 81.2 46.6 1.4 3.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.3 11.7 5.9 92.5 62.5 42.1 4.6 8.1 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.7 13.3 11.3 106.8 67.3 45.5 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.3 10.0 4.6 75.8 57.2 40.3 4.5 8.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.6 13.1 13.0 120.0 70.7 49.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.7 9.8 4.7 114.1 69.3 40.0 3.4 5.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.9 5.0 68.3 53.4 38.1 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 7.6 4.7 71.2 55.9 37.0 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.1 11.8 8.2 95.1 63.9 41.8 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.9 16.5 7.3 142.8 76.0 46.1 3.8 7.3 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.1 17.0 6.6 182.4 83.6 47.7 2.2 4.9 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 20.2 6.8 121.3 71.3 42.4 3.7 8.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.8 21.3 7.2 183.3 83.0 45.1 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.6 16.0 12.3 106.0 67.1 45.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.3 4.9 89.0 61.5 42.3 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------