***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 71.7 96.3 64.4 170.0 86.2 72.4 35.4 48.9 64.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 66.3 80.1 60.5 154.6 82.9 70.0 39.1 50.0 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 71.7 90.3 60.7 157.1 83.1 71.1 38.2 51.5 66.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 73.8 89.4 59.9 144.4 78.0 66.2 33.1 49.1 68.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 68.4 77.9 59.9 137.2 75.5 63.9 35.1 49.2 65.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 58.7 70.0 69.8 140.5 76.9 65.2 26.3 39.2 55.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 61.3 76.3 59.9 151.6 81.9 68.2 32.0 43.7 56.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 85.8 102.6 60.6 119.4 69.1 59.4 59.6 77.7 98.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 50.8 66.3 59.1 130.9 73.3 61.4 32.5 44.7 58.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.9 85.9 66.8 122.6 70.5 59.8 45.7 61.9 79.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 47.5 60.8 50.3 124.2 70.6 59.1 29.6 41.7 55.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 56.0 69.2 45.3 118.8 68.6 57.8 34.5 49.2 65.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 45.7 49.6 53.9 129.9 73.1 60.7 21.0 30.9 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 93.6 111.1 74.7 144.1 79.6 70.2 50.8 68.1 88.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 50.1 61.6 51.7 148.4 78.5 68.5 18.7 30.1 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 37.3 53.6 53.8 137.0 75.3 62.5 23.1 33.0 44.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 61.0 68.6 56.1 138.1 77.1 64.6 33.2 44.5 57.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 68.0 82.1 77.4 124.2 71.4 60.9 47.4 61.1 76.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 69.6 84.9 60.1 152.6 82.1 69.7 37.5 50.3 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 62.6 76.2 76.5 123.8 71.6 60.9 45.8 57.7 70.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 66.6 81.8 58.6 153.4 79.8 68.6 35.2 48.3 63.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 67.5 77.7 58.8 138.9 77.9 66.3 37.8 50.0 63.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 69.7 81.3 60.3 145.5 80.0 67.7 43.3 54.6 66.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 84.2 94.0 70.9 138.0 76.6 66.5 48.4 63.1 79.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 66.9 82.3 71.7 154.6 82.0 69.5 33.5 46.3 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 44.9 47.9 42.1 128.2 72.5 62.0 21.8 31.1 42.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 82.9 105.8 71.8 157.3 82.9 69.9 38.9 55.5 74.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 52.5 63.4 54.3 144.5 77.6 65.9 22.2 34.2 48.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 86.6 104.7 78.2 124.0 71.6 60.7 61.5 78.6 97.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 73.4 92.8 61.9 159.9 84.3 71.8 39.6 52.5 67.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------