***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 14.3 16.8 -0.3 43.3 43.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.8 16.2 -0.8 34.5 35.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.1 16.6 -0.5 40.7 41.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.4 15.2 -0.2 45.8 46.1 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.0 15.2 -0.3 43.9 44.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.4 13.4 0.0 51.0 50.9 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.3 -0.7 35.8 37.2 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.1 12.6 -0.6 38.8 39.6 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.3 15.7 -0.3 44.2 44.6 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.1 13.7 -0.4 41.4 42.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.0 14.5 -0.4 41.4 42.0 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.9 13.5 -0.5 40.3 41.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.6 13.9 -0.1 47.2 47.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.3 14.7 -1.0 31.8 33.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 15.9 15.8 17.1 0.1 52.8 52.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.9 14.5 14.6 -0.2 46.7 46.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.4 15.7 -0.9 31.2 32.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.6 12.5 -0.7 36.5 37.5 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.2 -0.8 35.1 36.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.3 10.1 -0.9 33.0 34.2 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.1 16.5 -0.4 42.5 43.2 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.6 -1.1 28.6 30.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.7 13.6 16.1 -0.7 36.7 37.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.1 13.9 14.7 -0.7 36.4 37.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.1 15.9 -0.3 44.8 45.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.4 13.4 -0.1 47.3 47.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.9 16.3 -0.2 45.2 45.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.4 16.0 -0.1 47.3 47.6 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.7 -0.8 34.5 35.7 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.3 16.5 -0.7 36.9 38.1 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------