***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 16.2 18.3 -0.1 46.8 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.2 18.3 -0.2 45.6 46.1 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.5 18.3 -0.1 48.6 48.8 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.5 16.5 -0.4 41.3 43.5 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.4 16.2 -0.4 40.8 43.3 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.0 14.8 0.1 51.2 50.8 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.5 18.2 -0.3 44.3 44.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.0 14.3 -0.3 42.2 43.8 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.9 16.5 -0.3 42.9 44.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.8 14.9 -0.3 43.2 44.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.7 15.9 -0.2 44.5 46.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.7 15.3 -0.2 44.4 45.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.0 14.9 -0.1 47.8 48.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.6 16.4 -0.2 44.6 45.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.6 17.7 0.0 49.8 49.5 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.3 15.7 -0.2 46.0 47.3 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.3 17.9 -0.2 45.8 46.4 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.2 14.2 -0.2 44.8 45.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.4 18.2 -0.1 47.0 47.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.1 12.4 -0.3 42.4 43.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.8 17.5 -0.2 45.0 46.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.0 17.7 -0.2 46.1 46.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 18.0 -0.1 47.7 48.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.4 16.3 -0.1 46.8 47.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.7 16.8 -0.3 43.3 44.4 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.8 14.7 -0.4 41.1 43.0 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.0 17.5 -0.2 45.0 45.5 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.9 17.1 -0.2 45.3 46.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.3 13.5 -0.2 45.1 45.7 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.7 18.4 -0.2 46.1 46.5 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------