***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 15.3 17.3 -0.4 37.8 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.3 14.5 17.2 -0.5 33.9 35.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 17.3 -0.3 39.9 41.1 16.5 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.9 15.6 -0.5 34.6 36.6 11.9 12.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.3 15.4 -0.5 33.7 35.8 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.6 13.8 -0.2 44.5 45.3 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.7 14.9 17.2 -0.6 32.9 34.6 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.5 7.6 13.3 -0.5 32.3 34.2 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.6 15.8 -0.4 35.9 37.8 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.3 14.4 14.1 -0.5 34.5 36.4 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.3 15.0 -0.4 36.2 37.8 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.2 14.3 -0.5 34.9 36.6 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.8 14.1 -0.3 40.1 41.5 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.0 15.0 15.5 -0.6 31.5 34.0 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.1 16.9 -0.2 44.9 45.6 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.8 14.8 -0.3 39.0 40.4 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.3 16.8 -0.5 31.8 34.2 15.3 15.9 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.8 12.8 13.2 -0.5 32.9 35.1 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 17.2 -0.5 35.8 37.3 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 8.6 8.7 11.3 -0.6 28.9 31.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.4 16.7 -0.4 37.0 38.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.3 16.7 -0.6 31.5 34.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.3 17.0 -0.4 37.1 38.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.7 15.4 -0.4 35.9 37.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.5 16.0 -0.4 36.2 37.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.5 13.9 -0.4 35.9 37.5 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.6 -0.4 37.4 38.9 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.6 16.2 -0.3 39.1 40.5 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.5 -0.5 31.6 33.8 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.0 17.4 -0.5 35.5 36.8 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------