***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 24.1 24.0 -2.7 17.9 20.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 25.0 24.3 23.5 -3.2 13.0 16.2 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 25.0 24.8 24.0 -2.7 18.5 21.3 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 18.1 18.2 22.7 -2.1 24.6 26.7 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 25.5 25.6 23.0 -2.3 23.8 26.0 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.0 25.5 21.8 -1.1 36.0 37.2 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 24.8 24.1 23.5 -3.1 13.0 16.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.9 21.3 -2.1 25.3 27.9 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 25.0 25.0 23.6 -2.4 22.4 24.7 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 24.8 24.9 22.0 -2.2 24.0 26.6 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 25.2 25.3 22.9 -2.0 26.1 28.3 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 24.6 24.8 22.6 -1.8 28.5 30.7 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.3 23.0 -1.4 33.7 35.4 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 24.7 24.2 22.0 -3.2 13.8 16.9 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.1 -1.7 28.2 30.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 26.4 26.6 23.2 -1.6 30.6 32.4 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 24.3 23.4 23.0 -3.2 11.3 14.8 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 24.1 24.0 20.8 -2.4 21.8 24.8 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 24.5 23.9 23.5 -3.1 13.6 16.8 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 19.9 19.9 19.1 -2.2 23.4 26.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 25.1 25.0 24.0 -2.7 20.1 22.5 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 24.8 23.7 22.8 -3.3 9.8 13.4 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 24.7 24.2 23.4 -3.0 14.8 17.9 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 24.5 24.2 22.3 -2.7 18.9 21.8 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 25.3 25.0 22.9 -2.6 19.1 21.6 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 25.5 26.0 22.6 -1.4 33.7 35.3 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 24.8 24.5 23.3 -2.7 17.4 20.1 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.1 23.9 -1.7 28.6 30.3 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 19.4 19.2 20.0 -2.4 21.4 24.6 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 24.8 24.2 23.8 -3.0 14.6 17.6 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------