***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 27.3 26.0 -1.5 27.7 31.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 26.8 27.1 26.1 -1.4 28.7 32.0 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 26.7 27.1 26.2 -1.3 30.3 33.4 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.2 19.6 24.5 -1.6 26.7 30.2 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 26.9 27.3 24.3 -1.6 26.6 30.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 25.6 26.0 22.3 -1.3 30.4 33.5 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 26.6 26.7 25.9 -1.5 27.2 30.8 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 14.9 15.2 22.8 -1.5 28.0 31.5 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 26.3 26.8 24.6 -1.5 27.9 31.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 26.2 26.6 23.4 -1.5 28.3 31.6 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 26.6 26.9 23.9 -1.5 28.2 31.7 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 25.8 26.1 23.8 -1.4 28.7 32.2 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.3 23.3 -1.4 29.1 32.5 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.8 24.5 -1.3 31.1 33.7 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 27.6 28.0 25.5 -1.2 30.6 33.6 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.8 23.7 -1.5 28.4 31.9 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.1 26.2 25.8 -1.4 28.0 31.4 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 25.5 26.0 22.7 -1.3 30.4 33.3 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.4 26.7 26.2 -1.3 30.0 33.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 21.0 21.5 20.6 -1.3 29.7 32.8 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 26.5 27.0 25.5 -1.5 28.1 31.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 26.6 26.9 25.9 -1.3 30.3 33.2 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 26.5 26.9 26.0 -1.3 31.0 33.7 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 26.1 26.6 24.4 -1.2 31.3 34.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 26.6 26.9 24.5 -1.5 26.8 30.3 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 26.7 26.8 23.2 -1.6 27.1 30.8 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.4 26.6 25.1 -1.5 26.8 30.4 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 27.3 27.8 25.0 -1.4 28.8 32.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 20.8 21.3 21.8 -1.2 31.7 34.4 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 26.6 26.8 26.2 -1.4 28.8 32.1 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------