***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 27.1 27.4 -0.6 40.7 42.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.3 27.3 -0.8 39.3 41.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.3 27.3 27.6 -0.5 42.2 43.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.1 26.2 -0.8 38.7 41.2 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.4 25.9 -0.8 38.2 40.8 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 25.5 26.7 24.1 -0.3 44.7 46.0 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 26.5 27.2 27.1 -0.8 38.6 41.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.4 24.2 -0.7 39.7 41.8 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.4 27.2 26.1 -0.7 39.5 41.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 26.2 27.0 24.8 -0.7 39.6 41.8 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 26.2 27.2 25.6 -0.6 40.8 42.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 25.7 26.6 25.4 -0.6 41.4 43.2 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 26.6 27.6 25.0 -0.5 42.2 43.8 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 26.4 27.0 25.4 -0.8 38.4 41.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.6 27.2 -0.3 44.9 46.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 27.2 28.3 25.5 -0.6 41.5 43.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 26.2 26.7 26.8 -0.9 37.0 40.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 25.2 26.1 23.9 -0.7 40.0 41.9 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.1 26.9 27.4 -0.7 40.3 42.6 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 20.9 21.7 21.8 -0.7 39.0 41.0 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.3 27.3 27.0 -0.7 40.2 42.3 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.2 26.8 -0.9 38.1 41.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.4 27.2 27.1 -0.7 40.7 42.9 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 25.8 26.7 25.6 -0.6 41.0 42.8 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.4 26.0 -0.7 39.4 41.8 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 26.3 27.1 25.0 -0.7 39.1 41.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.2 27.0 26.5 -0.7 40.0 42.3 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.4 26.7 -0.5 41.8 43.7 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 20.4 21.4 22.9 -0.7 40.4 42.2 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.3 27.2 27.5 -0.7 40.3 42.5 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------