***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 27.2 26.4 -1.4 22.6 25.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.3 -1.5 21.2 24.1 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.6 -1.3 24.4 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 20.0 20.0 25.1 -1.4 23.9 26.3 20.5 21.2 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 27.4 27.3 25.0 -1.5 22.7 25.2 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.6 23.3 -0.8 33.1 35.0 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 26.7 26.7 26.1 -1.6 19.9 22.9 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 15.5 15.4 23.3 -1.3 24.5 27.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 26.9 26.8 25.3 -1.4 22.9 25.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 26.7 26.6 23.9 -1.4 23.7 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.0 24.7 -1.3 25.7 28.0 27.4 28.2 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 26.4 26.4 24.5 -1.2 27.4 29.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 27.5 27.6 24.3 -1.0 30.4 32.5 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 26.7 26.5 24.6 -1.6 19.1 22.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.3 28.4 26.4 -1.0 30.9 33.1 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 28.0 28.1 24.7 -1.1 28.3 30.5 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 26.1 26.1 25.8 -1.6 18.9 22.1 26.8 27.5 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 25.9 25.8 23.0 -1.4 22.9 25.7 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 26.5 26.5 26.4 -1.5 22.3 25.2 27.0 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 21.6 21.5 21.0 -1.3 23.1 25.9 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.0 26.9 26.1 -1.5 22.6 25.3 27.5 28.2 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.8 -1.6 19.7 23.0 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 26.6 26.7 26.2 -1.4 22.7 25.7 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 26.4 26.3 24.7 -1.4 22.7 25.7 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 27.1 27.1 25.1 -1.5 21.9 24.6 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.3 24.2 -1.1 28.2 30.6 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 26.6 26.6 25.6 -1.4 21.6 24.3 27.1 27.9 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 28.2 28.3 25.8 -1.1 28.0 30.3 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 21.2 21.1 22.0 -1.3 23.0 26.0 21.6 22.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 26.7 26.7 26.5 -1.5 22.2 25.0 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------