***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 48.0 39.7 240.2 90.9 83.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 23.7 36.1 33.8 231.2 90.2 82.6 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 22.4 32.2 32.8 207.5 87.4 81.2 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 18.0 25.0 33.4 173.4 81.8 72.7 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 20.7 27.4 30.6 164.1 80.4 71.7 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.3 12.3 28.7 139.8 75.3 66.1 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 18.5 31.2 36.4 237.6 91.0 81.5 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 26.1 32.3 27.1 148.2 77.4 67.4 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.8 20.1 29.2 159.5 79.7 71.1 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 21.3 27.6 31.1 156.7 79.5 71.2 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.3 20.1 26.6 158.5 79.4 69.9 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 15.7 19.0 22.6 143.7 76.1 64.8 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.5 10.5 24.5 134.2 73.9 63.9 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 31.3 46.4 36.5 203.8 88.0 83.0 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.3 17.9 31.9 178.7 81.9 72.5 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.3 12.1 25.4 139.9 75.3 65.4 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 19.2 33.5 33.6 227.0 89.8 78.6 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 24.0 31.1 34.2 163.4 81.6 73.9 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 23.1 36.3 33.0 228.8 90.0 84.1 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 20.3 24.2 30.0 146.7 77.6 67.8 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 20.4 28.3 31.3 182.4 83.6 75.6 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 18.5 29.8 32.6 218.2 89.2 80.3 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 25.8 40.7 33.2 228.9 90.4 85.4 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 33.0 45.8 33.5 186.4 85.5 79.1 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 20.2 29.5 42.0 213.3 87.9 80.4 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.3 14.3 22.2 145.5 76.6 64.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 21.0 34.0 44.5 232.9 90.4 83.5 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.7 11.1 29.2 156.8 78.7 69.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 31.6 40.1 33.4 159.4 80.9 72.4 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 26.0 41.1 35.2 236.0 90.7 84.0 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------