***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 11.4 12.8 103.9 66.8 46.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.3 11.9 93.9 63.3 45.0 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.5 15.1 13.1 109.8 68.1 49.3 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.8 12.3 103.0 66.0 49.5 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 12.2 13.5 113.9 69.3 51.6 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 16.2 82.0 58.1 49.2 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.9 15.1 11.7 93.2 63.1 45.5 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 22.7 14.8 111.4 67.6 53.2 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 14.1 14.4 115.1 69.4 50.8 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 20.6 16.0 112.8 68.1 52.2 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.6 11.5 101.5 65.2 49.4 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.5 10.8 100.0 64.4 50.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.4 12.3 85.4 59.7 48.1 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.7 16.9 13.9 93.2 61.8 47.7 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 8.0 8.7 80.3 58.4 44.1 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.9 11.6 88.2 60.5 47.7 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.9 10.9 89.9 61.2 43.3 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 19.9 19.0 115.2 68.6 54.1 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 13.1 11.9 94.0 63.3 44.8 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 21.1 21.4 20.7 122.7 70.6 58.4 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.1 17.7 12.9 114.8 69.5 50.0 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.9 12.5 10.2 84.1 58.9 42.9 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.4 16.3 11.7 92.4 62.5 44.5 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.1 17.4 15.8 107.2 66.1 49.7 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.2 14.8 109.6 68.0 50.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.0 10.0 87.3 59.9 47.8 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.0 17.3 14.4 103.2 66.3 48.6 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.7 10.2 88.3 61.1 46.5 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 25.4 19.2 113.6 67.9 54.3 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.0 12.4 97.6 65.0 46.8 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------