***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 14.1 13.7 170.7 81.0 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 17.0 13.4 133.8 74.3 59.7 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 20.0 27.7 13.6 156.6 78.7 63.7 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 24.5 40.1 13.9 195.3 84.6 65.8 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 22.2 35.8 14.9 199.2 85.1 67.4 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 20.4 28.0 18.1 169.7 81.0 64.4 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.5 16.0 14.3 143.1 76.1 61.1 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 33.9 44.4 15.9 164.0 80.1 65.1 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 19.6 33.6 16.0 195.5 84.6 67.5 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 28.8 41.8 17.3 173.2 81.5 66.1 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 18.0 27.5 12.4 176.7 82.0 64.7 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 21.9 31.0 11.8 167.2 80.7 64.1 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.2 20.8 13.8 178.0 82.5 65.7 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.7 27.2 16.8 136.0 74.6 60.8 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.3 17.7 10.7 168.6 80.8 59.8 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.9 24.0 12.9 177.5 82.4 64.6 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.7 14.0 127.6 72.9 56.8 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 22.2 28.8 20.3 152.3 77.9 64.5 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.1 19.8 13.1 133.4 74.2 59.4 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 21.6 25.5 20.9 148.1 77.1 64.1 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 21.1 32.9 13.9 189.9 83.8 66.3 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.4 23.6 13.7 121.7 71.4 55.4 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.0 18.6 13.3 135.2 74.5 59.1 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.8 25.2 17.2 146.5 76.8 62.8 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 20.0 29.9 16.0 183.4 82.9 65.2 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.9 16.1 11.0 176.0 82.1 63.8 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 21.9 31.1 16.2 174.2 81.5 64.7 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 14.9 23.1 12.5 184.0 83.1 63.5 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 28.3 34.1 20.5 146.9 76.9 63.9 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.3 23.9 13.6 145.3 76.6 62.0 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------