***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 21.9 9.4 168.9 80.7 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 19.4 11.1 161.0 79.4 55.3 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.1 17.8 9.2 167.3 80.5 57.5 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.9 24.3 8.4 167.8 80.5 58.0 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.2 19.5 8.8 164.4 79.8 58.0 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 17.5 10.5 129.6 73.4 56.3 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 17.5 12.0 161.9 79.6 54.8 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 17.5 8.8 117.7 70.3 53.6 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.5 16.3 9.1 159.7 79.2 57.4 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 14.3 10.0 138.8 75.0 56.7 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.6 14.3 7.1 135.8 74.5 54.5 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 16.5 6.4 118.1 70.5 52.0 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.8 11.8 7.6 129.9 73.4 55.0 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 17.7 24.3 12.0 156.3 78.6 59.6 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 12.8 5.5 139.4 75.3 52.2 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.8 9.5 7.2 132.8 74.0 54.7 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 14.7 11.7 154.6 78.3 53.4 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 17.1 12.6 145.8 76.5 57.6 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 20.4 10.4 161.6 79.5 56.3 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 13.3 11.9 122.6 71.2 54.4 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 14.1 7.9 167.2 80.5 56.1 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 14.4 11.2 162.9 79.7 54.1 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.1 14.9 9.7 156.7 78.7 57.7 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.5 17.9 11.3 156.6 78.7 59.2 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 22.6 10.2 174.6 81.5 56.1 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.7 11.7 6.0 127.7 72.8 50.8 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 27.5 11.0 167.5 80.4 54.8 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 17.8 6.9 145.6 76.4 54.5 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 20.6 12.7 140.8 75.4 56.4 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.7 17.3 10.7 163.2 79.8 55.6 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------