***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 107.8 75.6 178.1 86.6 78.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 67.3 81.8 70.3 158.8 83.3 74.0 37.6 49.0 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 73.9 90.7 68.6 163.7 83.8 76.4 37.8 50.8 65.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 78.0 96.2 68.0 156.9 81.3 72.9 33.2 49.5 68.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 71.3 87.6 67.8 156.5 81.3 72.8 34.0 47.8 64.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 45.5 62.4 73.4 124.5 71.1 64.2 27.0 40.2 56.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 65.4 82.2 74.4 164.3 84.2 74.6 32.0 44.1 57.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 99.9 111.2 66.6 136.8 76.3 67.8 58.6 76.3 95.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 64.6 78.1 68.6 153.6 81.0 72.5 32.8 45.0 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 86.5 100.4 74.4 145.1 79.3 71.1 45.1 61.2 79.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 58.9 69.3 57.6 142.6 77.4 68.4 29.4 41.5 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 68.6 76.7 51.6 132.2 73.9 65.0 34.0 48.7 66.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 34.9 47.5 58.3 125.8 71.4 63.8 20.9 30.6 42.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 95.8 115.4 79.2 149.8 82.2 75.5 50.2 67.1 86.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 51.7 61.4 56.8 145.7 77.4 69.6 19.0 30.9 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 47.7 52.2 57.1 129.8 73.0 64.5 23.5 33.7 45.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 59.6 69.7 70.2 154.4 81.9 71.6 32.2 42.4 53.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 81.9 94.1 86.2 144.9 80.5 73.0 46.4 60.2 75.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 70.6 88.7 68.4 157.8 83.2 74.7 36.5 49.5 64.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 73.6 82.7 83.5 136.6 77.9 69.9 44.8 56.6 69.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 72.0 90.0 66.0 163.4 83.1 74.6 35.1 48.9 64.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 70.1 82.1 67.7 149.6 81.1 71.5 38.2 50.4 63.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 70.9 85.1 67.9 157.3 83.3 76.0 42.2 53.5 66.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 87.4 104.3 77.8 150.8 82.4 75.1 46.9 61.8 78.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 71.4 92.7 82.9 173.5 85.6 78.0 34.0 47.3 62.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 43.7 47.8 49.1 130.7 73.2 65.1 20.9 30.3 41.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 85.8 114.0 86.1 176.0 86.5 78.8 38.8 54.9 73.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 54.5 63.0 58.8 141.3 76.5 68.4 22.9 34.9 49.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 103.8 118.3 85.7 141.0 79.6 72.0 61.0 77.8 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 73.6 91.2 71.9 165.1 84.4 75.9 39.8 52.3 66.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------