***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 16.1 16.8 20.1 2.8 88.6 86.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 16.4 17.5 20.1 2.9 87.8 86.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 18.2 19.1 20.3 2.8 87.5 85.7 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 13.5 15.1 17.7 3.0 91.8 90.2 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 14.6 15.5 18.4 2.8 90.3 88.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 13.7 14.5 15.2 2.4 88.6 87.1 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 16.2 17.2 20.1 3.0 89.4 87.5 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 9.4 10.7 15.5 2.8 91.3 90.0 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.0 18.7 2.9 92.0 90.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.0 16.7 2.9 92.3 90.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.6 16.5 17.9 2.6 88.7 87.0 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 13.8 14.6 16.6 2.7 88.9 87.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 15.1 15.8 16.7 2.4 87.8 86.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 16.7 17.9 18.2 2.9 90.6 88.9 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 17.0 17.7 19.5 2.5 87.7 86.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.1 16.9 17.3 2.4 87.4 85.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 16.8 18.0 20.1 3.3 91.6 89.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 14.7 15.9 16.0 2.9 91.9 90.5 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 16.1 16.9 20.1 2.8 86.8 85.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 10.5 11.7 14.1 3.0 92.6 91.5 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 15.7 16.6 19.6 2.8 90.2 88.3 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 15.8 16.9 20.2 3.1 90.5 88.5 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.5 20.1 2.8 87.0 85.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 16.4 17.7 18.2 2.8 90.7 89.0 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.3 19.0 2.7 87.9 86.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 14.8 15.4 15.4 2.3 85.6 84.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 15.8 16.7 19.5 2.8 88.6 86.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 14.8 15.6 18.2 2.6 88.9 87.3 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 13.3 14.8 15.3 2.9 92.5 91.3 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 16.5 17.3 20.3 2.8 87.2 85.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------