***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.8 19.2 1.3 73.9 68.5 15.4 16.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.2 18.7 0.8 65.8 62.1 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.7 19.5 1.2 73.8 67.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 14.4 15.0 17.1 1.7 82.8 75.7 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 15.6 16.1 17.4 1.6 81.2 74.3 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 14.3 15.3 15.4 2.0 89.4 80.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.5 18.8 0.8 66.3 62.8 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 9.5 10.0 14.8 1.5 80.2 74.0 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.0 17.4 1.5 80.0 73.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 16.2 16.6 15.7 1.5 80.4 73.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.7 17.0 1.5 79.8 73.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 14.0 14.4 16.1 1.6 81.2 74.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 15.6 16.3 15.9 1.7 84.5 76.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.1 17.0 1.3 77.6 70.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 17.6 18.3 19.0 1.7 84.3 76.9 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.3 16.6 1.7 84.0 76.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.9 18.5 0.9 66.9 62.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 14.7 15.2 14.9 1.5 81.1 74.3 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 0.9 67.1 62.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 10.6 11.3 13.0 1.7 84.6 77.4 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.8 18.6 1.4 78.1 71.7 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.9 15.8 18.6 0.8 66.3 61.8 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.8 19.0 1.1 71.6 66.1 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 16.5 16.8 17.0 1.3 77.3 70.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.6 18.0 1.4 76.7 71.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.9 15.3 1.9 86.8 79.3 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.7 18.5 1.3 75.3 69.9 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 15.5 16.2 17.7 1.8 84.8 77.0 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 13.6 14.2 14.3 1.5 81.1 74.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.7 19.1 0.9 67.3 63.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------