***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.1 19.2 0.5 59.7 56.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.7 18.9 0.3 55.4 53.8 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.4 19.7 0.7 63.3 58.8 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.8 17.3 1.1 71.6 64.1 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.0 17.1 0.8 66.6 60.6 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 15.5 1.1 73.9 65.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.2 19.0 0.3 55.6 54.0 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.0 14.7 0.5 60.7 56.7 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.2 17.1 0.9 67.6 61.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.9 15.5 0.7 65.1 59.3 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.7 16.8 0.8 66.0 60.2 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.6 15.8 0.7 63.9 58.6 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.1 15.2 0.9 69.8 62.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.8 16.2 16.6 0.3 57.2 54.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.7 19.0 1.1 73.7 65.4 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.8 16.4 1.1 72.8 64.5 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.9 18.8 0.4 57.3 55.2 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.2 14.5 0.7 65.1 59.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.9 19.1 0.4 56.4 54.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 12.1 0.5 62.5 58.2 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.8 18.4 0.8 64.9 59.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.5 18.7 0.4 57.0 55.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 19.0 0.4 58.1 55.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.2 16.6 0.6 62.4 57.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.8 17.7 0.6 61.6 58.0 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.0 15.0 0.9 69.4 61.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 18.3 0.5 59.6 56.7 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.5 18.0 1.3 75.9 66.8 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.3 13.9 0.6 62.7 58.3 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.3 19.2 0.4 56.4 54.7 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------