***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 16.1 16.4 19.3 1.3 82.0 77.3 15.0 15.4 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.3 19.1 1.1 76.9 73.4 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 18.0 18.4 19.7 1.3 82.1 77.3 16.5 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.3 17.2 1.6 90.5 84.1 11.9 12.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.6 15.3 17.3 1.4 87.6 81.2 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 13.5 14.4 15.3 1.6 92.7 86.1 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.4 19.1 1.1 77.7 74.0 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 8.8 9.3 14.8 1.3 86.4 80.2 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 15.9 16.5 17.4 1.4 88.5 81.8 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.3 15.7 1.4 88.5 82.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.1 17.0 1.3 85.9 79.3 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 13.5 14.0 15.9 1.3 86.0 79.9 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.9 15.6 15.6 1.4 89.2 82.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 16.4 16.9 17.0 1.2 84.6 79.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 17.1 17.7 18.9 1.5 88.7 82.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 16.1 16.8 16.5 1.5 89.4 82.7 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 16.7 17.1 19.0 1.2 81.3 76.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 14.2 14.9 14.8 1.4 89.3 83.6 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.1 19.2 1.1 76.8 73.4 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 10.1 10.9 12.7 1.4 90.5 85.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.2 18.6 1.3 85.9 80.0 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.7 15.9 18.9 1.2 79.8 75.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 15.4 15.6 19.2 1.2 78.6 74.9 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 16.2 16.8 17.0 1.3 85.7 80.3 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 15.7 16.2 18.0 1.3 84.4 79.3 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 14.6 15.2 15.0 1.4 89.5 83.3 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.3 18.6 1.3 83.3 78.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 14.8 15.6 17.8 1.6 90.8 84.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 13.0 13.6 14.2 1.4 89.3 83.8 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.5 19.3 1.1 77.0 73.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------