***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 29.5 30.4 30.3 3.0 83.8 81.9 26.3 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 29.2 29.7 30.3 2.8 80.1 78.5 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 29.3 29.9 30.4 2.9 80.2 78.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 22.0 23.0 27.0 2.9 84.0 81.4 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.5 28.1 2.6 80.2 78.1 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 28.5 29.0 25.4 2.4 79.8 77.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 29.1 30.0 30.5 3.2 85.2 83.1 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.6 17.8 25.1 1.9 73.0 71.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 29.4 30.2 29.2 2.8 82.1 80.0 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.5 26.5 2.4 78.0 76.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 29.1 29.4 28.2 2.2 74.8 73.1 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.2 26.7 1.9 71.6 70.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.6 27.9 2.1 73.6 71.8 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 29.1 29.8 28.8 2.9 83.1 81.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 30.0 30.6 30.1 2.6 80.8 78.6 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.4 27.9 2.2 75.3 73.5 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 28.7 29.8 30.5 3.5 87.1 84.9 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 28.3 28.8 25.6 2.5 79.2 77.6 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 28.7 29.1 30.3 2.8 79.4 77.9 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 24.2 24.5 23.2 2.2 76.3 75.0 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 29.4 30.2 29.9 2.8 81.9 80.0 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.3 30.4 30.3 3.4 87.2 85.3 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 29.1 29.7 30.5 3.0 81.2 79.5 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 28.7 29.3 28.4 2.7 80.7 79.0 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 29.5 30.3 29.0 2.9 82.9 81.0 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 28.7 28.7 25.9 1.5 67.5 66.5 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 29.0 30.0 29.7 3.1 85.0 83.0 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 30.2 30.8 28.2 2.6 81.1 78.8 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 23.8 24.4 24.9 2.5 79.9 78.4 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 29.1 29.5 30.4 2.8 80.0 78.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------