***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.9 30.3 1.0 62.1 59.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.5 29.8 0.6 57.2 56.5 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 29.2 28.9 30.7 1.1 64.0 61.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.5 22.6 28.9 1.7 72.2 65.4 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 29.7 29.7 29.1 1.5 69.0 63.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 28.4 28.7 26.6 1.7 74.1 66.4 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.5 29.7 0.6 57.6 56.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.5 17.1 27.1 1.2 65.4 60.6 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.4 29.2 1.6 69.8 63.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.9 27.8 1.5 69.0 63.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.1 28.9 1.4 68.5 62.6 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.5 28.2 28.8 1.3 66.3 61.1 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.5 28.0 1.5 69.6 63.5 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.2 27.8 0.7 59.6 57.7 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 30.4 30.4 30.2 1.6 71.0 65.1 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.6 28.9 1.8 73.0 65.8 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.0 28.4 29.8 0.8 60.7 58.9 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.0 27.9 26.8 1.3 67.5 62.4 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 28.0 28.1 30.1 0.6 58.1 57.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.6 23.5 24.1 1.1 66.0 61.4 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.1 29.9 1.3 66.1 61.7 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 29.3 28.7 29.7 0.8 60.5 59.1 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.4 30.2 0.8 59.5 58.0 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.7 28.2 28.3 1.0 63.8 60.1 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.2 28.6 1.2 65.1 61.3 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 29.0 29.1 28.6 1.4 69.0 63.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 29.0 28.5 29.2 1.0 62.8 60.1 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 30.5 30.7 29.5 1.8 74.0 66.7 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.3 25.6 1.2 66.4 61.7 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.4 30.0 0.6 58.1 57.1 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------