***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 30.4 29.4 30.5 0.6 57.9 58.0 27.3 28.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.9 30.1 0.2 52.8 54.1 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.5 29.6 30.9 0.7 59.5 58.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 24.1 24.0 29.2 1.5 70.5 65.4 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.4 30.9 29.2 1.1 65.2 62.0 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 29.9 30.0 27.1 1.7 74.5 67.0 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.9 30.0 0.2 53.0 54.0 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.9 27.2 0.8 61.0 58.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.7 30.3 29.4 1.2 65.7 62.2 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.2 29.7 27.9 1.1 64.4 61.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.3 29.1 1.1 64.8 61.5 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.7 29.1 29.0 1.0 62.5 59.5 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 31.0 30.7 28.3 1.2 66.5 62.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.4 27.7 0.0 49.7 51.9 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.7 31.8 30.7 1.6 72.1 66.5 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 32.0 31.9 29.1 1.5 70.2 64.8 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.5 30.0 0.4 54.9 55.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 29.1 28.4 26.8 0.8 60.1 58.3 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.5 30.4 0.3 53.5 54.6 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.9 24.0 0.6 57.6 56.2 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.6 29.9 30.0 0.9 61.7 60.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.9 29.8 0.3 53.9 54.6 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.7 30.4 0.3 53.7 54.7 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.7 28.2 0.5 56.4 56.3 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 31.0 30.2 28.9 0.8 61.6 60.2 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.6 30.1 28.9 1.1 65.2 60.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.2 29.2 29.5 0.6 58.4 58.1 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 31.8 31.9 29.9 1.7 73.4 67.2 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.6 25.5 0.6 57.7 56.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.8 30.3 0.3 53.8 54.9 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------