***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 29.2 29.3 30.2 1.4 74.2 71.0 27.7 28.3 28.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 29.0 28.8 29.9 1.0 66.6 65.1 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.2 30.6 1.5 74.3 70.9 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 22.4 23.1 28.3 2.0 85.1 78.4 20.5 21.2 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 29.8 30.3 28.8 1.8 80.8 74.9 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 28.5 29.3 26.5 2.2 89.4 82.2 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.9 28.8 29.8 1.1 70.0 67.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.6 26.5 1.4 76.3 71.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 29.2 29.8 29.2 1.8 81.7 75.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 28.9 29.4 27.4 1.7 80.3 74.5 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 29.2 29.7 28.8 1.6 78.6 73.3 27.4 28.2 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 28.3 28.6 28.2 1.5 76.6 71.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.1 28.2 1.8 81.1 75.3 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 28.6 28.7 28.0 1.1 71.8 68.9 27.2 27.8 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 30.3 30.9 30.4 1.9 83.3 77.3 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 30.4 31.1 28.7 1.9 83.2 77.0 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 28.4 28.5 29.8 1.3 73.5 70.3 26.8 27.5 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.5 26.4 1.5 79.4 74.2 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.4 30.0 1.0 67.2 65.6 27.0 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 23.7 24.1 23.9 1.4 78.7 73.7 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 29.3 29.6 29.9 1.6 78.3 73.6 27.5 28.2 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.0 29.7 1.3 72.5 69.8 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.7 28.7 30.2 1.2 70.2 67.9 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.6 28.3 1.3 75.3 71.2 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.7 28.7 1.5 77.6 73.4 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.1 29.4 27.9 1.6 78.5 73.6 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 28.8 29.0 29.3 1.4 75.9 72.2 27.1 27.9 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 30.4 31.2 29.2 2.1 85.9 79.2 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 23.4 23.9 25.3 1.5 79.9 74.7 21.6 22.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 28.8 28.7 30.0 1.1 67.6 65.9 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------