***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 7.9 9.9 56.3 46.5 41.8 5.2 8.7 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 13.1 8.9 63.2 49.5 43.1 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 12.3 81.6 56.9 51.6 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.9 12.5 13.6 86.8 59.7 56.1 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 12.1 16.6 16.3 102.1 64.8 61.3 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 6.4 7.4 15.0 90.2 59.0 56.1 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 9.3 8.5 59.2 48.4 41.2 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 15.7 24.4 23.0 118.7 69.0 64.2 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 8.4 10.8 15.5 94.3 61.3 58.2 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 19.3 21.2 25.3 126.9 71.4 66.9 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 14.9 16.9 20.6 138.3 74.3 68.9 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 14.6 15.5 17.6 121.3 70.1 64.8 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 6.4 8.3 14.5 101.3 65.1 59.8 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 18.6 25.0 20.2 109.7 67.1 61.7 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 6.7 7.7 11.1 82.8 59.9 54.5 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 6.7 8.9 14.6 103.7 64.7 59.8 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.4 8.0 57.9 47.8 38.7 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.9 20.7 23.7 115.2 67.8 63.0 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.7 12.2 9.7 67.7 51.4 46.2 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 18.9 18.9 23.7 119.1 68.9 64.3 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 11.8 13.2 13.4 83.3 57.9 53.8 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.3 8.7 63.7 50.8 44.1 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.8 11.8 80.2 56.9 51.3 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 20.7 27.0 19.0 106.7 66.0 60.7 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 11.9 10.3 11.4 60.7 49.9 46.3 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 6.8 9.6 12.3 102.1 65.4 61.9 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.4 9.2 10.4 55.6 46.6 41.9 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 5.5 7.4 15.4 102.6 65.4 60.2 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 20.7 27.1 22.7 112.1 66.7 61.9 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.8 14.1 9.6 65.7 50.7 43.7 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------